第7回コラム
Seventh Column

I have been studying Japan’s population decline for the past two decades, driven by a strong sense of urgency. To overcome this challenge, Japanese companies must accelerate their overseas expansion, while domestically, regional revitalization has come to be emphasized. My research focuses on exploring how Japan can address such social challenges. In this context, the two seemingly separate issues—overseas business expansion and the domestic population decline—are in fact closely interrelated.

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From my experience being involved in overseas expansion project of Japanese companies at Nomura Research Institute, I have learned a great deal from many failures. Achieving success in overseas expansion in urban development sector is far from easy. Since the 2000s, many Japanese companies have entered overseas urban and infrastructure markets, yet most have either faced setbacks or withdrawn midway. The causes are multifaceted and difficult to summarize briefly, but if I were to point to one factor, it would be that Japanese companies have evolved too specifically to fit the domestic market. Those with extensive international experience may understand what I mean. To enter the global market, Japanese companies must grow and adapt to local conditions, and this requires substantial transformation on the part of Japanese companies. In particular, industrial structure in Japan has become overly fragmented, and many firms lack resilience against country risk. These are issues that need to be addressed swiftly. Moreover, there also need the project integrator which is functionally integrated technologies to gain competitive edge in the field of urban development. While Japanese companies will continue to expand abroad, I intend to keep exploring how they can succeed in the global market in my ongoing research.

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Not only Japan but also its neighboring country, South Korea, is facing the challenge of population decline, with a total fertility rate of 0.75 in 2024, one of the lowest among developed countries. Japan’s total fertility rate was 1.20 in 2023, is also far below the replacement level of 2.07, which is necessary to maintain population stability. Given these shared challenges, numerous international conferences have been held to facilitate the exchange of knowledge between the two countries. Understanding each other’s current situations and sharing the effectiveness of respective measures carries great significance.

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In South Korea, not only government agencies and universities but also private companies are showing strong interest in this issue, major corporations have established a private research institution Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future (KPPIF) to address the problem collaboratively. Korea’s population decline is far more rapid than Japan’s, and it is certain to become a major social issue in the coming years. Beyond its economic impact, the country is already facing serious social consequences, including the strain on social security systems and the erosion of traditional family values.

According to the projection by the University of Washington, the world’s population is expected to peak at 9.73 billion in 2064 and then begin to decline, reaching 8.7 billion by 2100 (Vollset et al., 2020). This study, widely reported in media, implies that all major developed countries will have entered an era of population decline by the 2060s. In other words, population decrease will become a shared global challenge. I would like to contribute to facilitate the discussion to develop the global measures between the countries shared the same challenge against population decline. Based on my long-standing academic exchanges with South Korea, a Korean version of my book about urban and infrastructure development in the era of population decline is scheduled to be published around summer 2025.

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